Major hike to WFE market outlook; still expect peak in 2028

Research evidence excerpt

Major hike to WFE market outlook; still expect peak in 2028

18 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Semiconductor Device Production Equipment

Industry Overview

Downside risks include supplier capacity shortages

Senior Analyst: Summary

Yoshitsugu Yamamoto We raise our WFE market outlook sharply, reflecting the strength of

+81 3 6202 8169 semiconductor demand from AI. The upward revision mainly reflects growing

yoshitsugu.yamamoto@mizuho-sc.com demand for CPUs and DDR-DRAM stemming from higher demand for agentic

AI. Specifically, this represents an upward revision to the outlook for Intel’s

WFE investment and the front-loading of DRAM capacity expansion. WFE

spending per unit of DRAM capacity has increased more than previously

assumed, which is one reason for the upward revision to our outlook.

While there is no change to our overall outlook for TSMC’s cumulative

WFE investment for the five-year period of 2026–2030, we assume that the

investment timing will be more front loaded. As a result, we raise our WFE

investment outlook for 2026–2028 and lower it for 2029–2030.

Our new WFE market outlook is as follows (in terms of shipments): $145b in

2026 (up 26% YoY), $180b in 2027 (up 24%), $215b in 2028 (up 19%), and

$190b in 2029 (down 12%). This compares with our previous outlook of $133b

in 2026 (up 21% YoY), $147b in 2027 (up 11%), $170b in 2028 (up 16%),

and $160b in 2029 (down 6%). Although this represents a large hike to our

estimates, we maintain our view that the market will peak in 2028.

We see two key risks to our WFE market outlook. The downside risk lies

in capacity constraints among suppliers that provide components to SPE

manufacturers. This includes raw material procurement, factory space, and

labor availability. The upside risk relates to NAND.