Leisure & Hotels: FanDuel Retention & Prediction Markets, Previews & Comps: 'Weekend Break' No. 1,148

Research evidence excerpt

Leisure & Hotels: FanDuel Retention & Prediction Markets, Previews & Comps: 'Weekend Break' No. 1,148

Foundation

May 22, 2026 09:32 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MLeisure & Hotels | Europe Jamie Rollo

Equity Analyst

FanDuel Retention & Prediction Jamie.Rollo@morganstanley.comEd Young +44 20 7425-3281

Ed.Young@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1761

Markets, Previews & Comps: Axel Stasse

Axel.Stasse@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2429

'Weekend Break' No. 1,148 James S Harden

Research Associate

James.Harden@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0986

The impact of Prediction Markets on US online performance is

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

the top debate in gambling. Our analysis of new credit card Stephen W Grambling

panel data shows little overlap between e.g. Kalshi and Flutter. EquityStephen.Grambling@morganstanley.comAnalyst +1 212 761-1010

Our weekly also includes previews of upcoming results

Leisure and Hotels

(Whitbread), a summary of our latest research, and global Europe

valuation comps. Industry View Attractive

Watch our Video

Exhibit 1: FanDuel retention shows a higher retention rate among first-time

bettors with a smaller loss of customers to DKNG and more recently

encroachment by Fanatics, suggesting PM leakage is very modest

Source: AlphaWise, Carbon Arc - Credit Card US Complete Panel, Morgan Stanley Research

This week we look at the impact of Prediction Markets on retention within

Flutter's FanDuel: We examined a panel of customer credit card deposit data

(~9mn) from Carbon Arc across the US to assess the latest trends within traditional

sportsbooks, along with other non-traditional OSB operators like Kalshi/Prize Picks. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,