Australia Materials: Spot Base Consensus: 22 May 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Materials: Spot Base Consensus: 22 May 2026

Idea

May 22, 2026 05:26 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 22 May R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow, Industry View Attractive

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base case Recent Research:

values for all stocks under our coverage. Asia Energy Security and AI: Energy Meets

Compute: Supercycle Recharges (21 May 2026)

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot

Mineral Resources Limited: TripNotes: Wodgina

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Site Visit (20 May 2026)

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

BHP Group Ltd: Rising data centre build favours

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

BHP's commodity mix – but there's plenty of

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up alpha too (13 May 2026)

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – Boss Energy Ltd: Updating Estimates and Price

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 2Q26: Two-Way Risks (8 Apr 2026). Target (1 May 2026)

Mineral Resources Limited: Updating Estimates

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

(30 Apr 2026)

50% South32 Ltd: Hermosa: Higher capex somewhat

40% offset by longer life. A large overhang is

removed with modest impact expected. (29 Apr

30%

2026)

20% Mineral Resources Limited: Strong 3QFY26

10% Production: Guide upgraded but Cons largely