Scout24: CMD Sharpens the Upside Case

Research evidence excerpt

Scout24: CMD Sharpens the Upside Case

IdeaM

Exhibit 2: Bull Case versus Base Case Revenue Forecasts Exhibit 3: Bull Case versus Base Case ooEBITDA Forecasts

(Professional) (Professional)

Base Bull Base Bull

781 512

648 675 428 456

2027E 2028E 2027E 2028E

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Framing the Private bull case

1. 700k subscriber target would require a clear acceleration. Management is

targeting ~700k Private subscribers by 2028, up from ~500k in 2025, implying a

~12% CAGR. We currently sit below this at ~640k by FY28, with 9% membership

growth and 4% ARPU growth in FY27/FY28. Management highlighted that

extending membership lifetime is a key lever, with a doubling of customer lifetime

effectively equivalent to doubling the subscriber base. Therefore, if Scout24 can

deliver LDD subscriber growth and move closer to the 700k target, we think this

would bring the Private bull case into view and likely drive further consensus

upgrades.

2. New tiering creates a clearer ARPU path. The Standard, Pro and Unlimited

packages, priced at €15, €18 and €30 respectively on 12-month subscriptions, with

6-month plans (more popular option) priced at €19.99, €24.99 and €34.99, create

a more visible upsell ladder. Users need Pro to access the tenant network, while

many of the new AI features sit in Unlimited. Current ARPU of €17.8 suggests the

majority of users are still on standard, so the next leg of ARPU upside is likely to

be driven by upgrades to pro/unlimited. We think this could be driven by AI

products, which are still largely in beta today. If these tools become must-have

features for renters, increased adoption of Pro/Unlimited could accelerate and

bring upside to our base case into view.

3.