IT Hardware: Monthly Data Tracker: Cloud Capex Tracker Now At +87% Y/Y

Research evidence excerpt

IT Hardware: Monthly Data Tracker: Cloud Capex Tracker Now At +87% Y/Y

UpdateMLooking ahead, it is still early to form a definitive view on 2027 cash capex based on

current Consensus estimates, which point to just 14% Y/Y growth (vs. +37% Y/Y

MSe, excluding IREN). That said, our sense is that investors broadly expect another

25-30% Y/Y increase in total cloud capex. Based on Consensus estimates for 2026

FCF (negative for AMZN and nearly zero for META), next year’s capex outlook will

likely depend on major hyperscalers’ ability to generate operating cash flow –

especially as capital intensity (capex as a % of revenue) rises to a 10+ year high of

30.0% in 2026, compared to an average of 8.1% over 2014-2023 or 18.6% in 2025

( Exhibit 111 ). Following C1Q26 earnings, Morgan Stanley US Internet and Software

teams raised their expectations for cloud revenue growth and now expect major US

hyperscaler cloud revenue growth to accelerate to 35-40% in CY26 – marking the

highest levels since C3Q21 – resulting in +36% Y/Y growth (a 12-point Y/Y

acceleration) for the full-year, followed by another 2-point Y/Y acceleration to +38%

in 2027 ( Exhibit 112 ).

To provide a more comprehensive view on overall cloud capex spend and the

implications to tech supply chains, we have also expanded our Cloud Capex Tracker

to include capex from NBIS (covered by Josh Baer), IREN (not covered), and TSLA

(covered by Andrew Percoco). Specifically, TSLA raised its 2026 capex by 25%+ (or

$5B+ to $25B+, up from $8.5B spent in 2025) vs. 90 days ago, primarily driven by

increased investment in AI-related initiatives, including AI infrastructure.

The excel version of our latest Cloud Capex Tracker is available upon request.

May App Store net revenue is tracking +4% Y/Y MTD, further decelerating vs.