Mitsui Fudosan: Japan Summit 2026: F3/27 Guidance Structured Cautiously Given Externals, But Fundamentals Solid with Underlying Trends Unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Mitsui Fudosan: Japan Summit 2026: F3/27 Guidance Structured Cautiously Given Externals, But Fundamentals Solid with Underlying Trends Unchanged

Update

May 22, 2026 12:55 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMitsui Fudosan (8801) | Japan Toshiyuki Anegawa

Equity Analyst

Japan Summit 2026: F3/27 Toshiyuki.Anegawa@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8914

Guidance Structured Cautiously

Given Externals, But

Mitsui Fudosan (8801.T, 8801 JT)

Real Estate | Japan

Fundamentals Solid with Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥2,500Underlying Trends Unchanged Shr price, close (May 21, 2026) ¥1,520

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥4,167.0

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥14.3

Summary of discussions between Mitsui Fudosan and institutional investors:

While F3/27 guidance tops MTP targets, profit growth has been moderated by the

F3/26 overshoot and management rounding down guidance for each business by

¥5bn in light of the Middle East situation. At present, there is no business impact

from the Middle East situation. The firm has not received any requests for changes

in condominium constructions from general contractors, and we expect minimal

impact for commercial facilities and hotels given their high-end nature. Expected

gains on sale in F3/27 reflect the favorable domestic climate, with ~90% of assets

domestic. Guidance calls for rental income (incl. commercial facilities) +¥13bn YoY,

broadly in line with real estate peers. While office rents and market decoupling are

progressing more strongly than initially expected, interest rates are also rising more

than expected and the firm is reviewing long-term management policy from many

angles. The expected growth drivers for F3/28 are rent hikes, overseas growth, and

contributions from the Nihonbashi project.