Rebasing expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Rebasing expectations

Macquarie Equity Research Nick Scali

Outperform, Target Price: $15.30

Maintain Outperform, but rebasing expectations

We downgrade our earnings forecasts for NCK, driven by a worsening consumer environment

in ANZ household retail (see Macro section below), but maintain our positive view on the

We see long-term value stock.

in NCK, but near-term Further consensus downgrades an overhang

overhangs will continue to

NCK’s share price decline (down 43% since the February 2026 results vs. ASX300 down 4%)weigh on sentiment

reflects concerns about the near-term macro environment, which we view as more than

priced in on a fundamental basis. However, VA consensus remains stale, with only 3 of 8

other broker contributors having updated forecasts since the 1H results. This increases the

likelihood of further consensus downgrades, which may weigh on the NCK share price in the

near term.

Longer-term value from product/model/UK still apparent

Beyond this, we see longer-term upside from both the existing earnings base, with NCK

product continuing to gain cut-through with ANZ customers (LFLs consistently >7% over

2H25), and NCK product improving trading in its existing UK stores.

While not in our forecasts, the UK store rollout opportunity suggests additional long-term

upside.

Our revisions outlined

ANZ: Our revisions are primarily for FY27e, reflecting modelled LFL revenue declines

alongside the market’s current pricing of interest rate increases before reaching a plateau.

Consequently, our FY27e forecasts assume a 5% YoY revenue decline in the ANZ business.

With an approximately 10-week lead time on orders, we see limited risk to FY26e LFL

forecasts from recent macro deterioration (from March 2026 onwards).