Macquarie Asia Conference 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Macquarie Asia Conference 2026

Flashnote

20 May 2026

Transportation

S.F. Holding China

Ellie Jason

Jiang Zhang

What's new

• We hosted investor meetings with S.F. Holding (SF) on the second day of 002352 CH Outperform

Price (at 19 May 2026) CNY35.29 our Asia Conference in Hong Kong. SF remains committed to shareholder 12-month target CNY48.40

returns with ~Rmb2bn buyback quota (Rmb1.5bn in A-shares; HK$500mn in 12-month TSR (%) 39.5

H-shares) remaining and a 40% payout ratio. Volatility Index Low

• SF expects its revenue to grow at a high-single-digit or low-teen % YoY pace MarketMarket CapCap (Local)(USD) (m)(m) 176,28625,931

in 2026, accompanied by expanding operating margins. Free Float (%) 48

30-day avg turnover (USD) (m) 133.1

Why it matters

Investment Fundamentals

• Operation revamp to support better revenue mix. While the "Stimulate YearRevenueend(bn)31 Dec 2025A308.2 2026E333.0 2027E360.7 2028E389.3

Operation Vitality" initiative drove meaningful volume growth in 1H25, EBITDA (bn) 23.2 34.5 36.6 39.0

it also dragged on overall average selling price (ASP). Under the industry EBITDA growth (%) (3.5) 48.4 6.2 6.5

anti-involution environment, SF pivoted its operational revamp to the EBIT (bn) 14.7 16.1 17.9 19.7

EBIT growth (%) (0.0) 9.4 11.0 10.5

"Profit-Lifting Program" by giving more autonomy to front-line couriers for Reported profit (bn) 11.1 12.0 13.4 14.8

developing more high-end volume, and expanding more premium customer Adjusted profit (bn) 9.3 11.0 12.4 13.8

coverage with industry specialised sales, while off-loading less lucrative EC EPS adj [CNY] 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7

parcels to external capacity. EPS adj growth (%) (2.3) 18.5 12.2 11.6

PER adj (x) 19.1 16.1 14.3 12.9

• Unique capabilities to support supply chain and international growth.