Norsk Titanium-EBITDA break-even pushed to 2028-05/18/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Norsk Titanium-EBITDA break-even pushed to 2028-05/18/2026

Norsk Titanium

NEWSFLASH | 18 MAY 2026

EBITDA break-even pushed to 2028

NTI released a fresh investor presentation this morning, reiterating much of the same message as in the Q1'26 presentation

while also unveiling new long-term targets – they now expect to reach EBITDA break-even in 2028 (at 25% capacity

utilisation) and a 30% margin in 2030 (at 50% utilisation). This compares to the previous guidance of break-even in early

2027, and the delay should be largely expected following the withdrawal of guidance in Q4. Greater traction within defence

underpins management's confidence in the road to profitability, with our understanding being that a swift uptick in interest

from a few defence primes (driven by the need for inventory replenishment) and solid progress with the US Navy are the

two main drivers here. Monetisation of the RPD system (targeted at a 50% lower unit cost) and mounting AI-driven demand

from the semiconductor and nuclear spaces stand out to us as the other key 'near-term' opportunities. While the new

guidance arguably sits slightly below consensus at USD 19m in EBITDA for 2028, we would argue the shares already reflect

limited confidence in such figures.

Comments

• Installed capacity corresponds to USD ~300m in revenue, meaning guidance of 25-50% capacity utilisation implies USD 75-150m in

revenue, or USD ~45m in EBITDA by 2030

• NTI highlights that they expect RPD system revenues to grow from 0% to 30% of the mix by 2030, and as the license and service parts

come with accretive margins, any real traction here could prove a meaningful estimate kicker

• In the near term, NTI flags a USD 150-200m opportunity from dialogues with an aerostructure OEM and a USD 500m opportunity with a