nCino, Inc.: Q4 Deals to Drive Organic Subscription Rev Accel; Expect Similar Approach to ACV Guide in FY27 as Seen in FY26

Research evidence excerpt

nCino, Inc.: Q4 Deals to Drive Organic Subscription Rev Accel; Expect Similar Approach to ACV Guide in FY27 as Seen in FY26

ion revenue, the FY27 guide implies ~10-11%

growth y/y organically and does not include any incremental buying of new intelligence unit

bundles from bank customers, so if Banking Advisor demand continues to outperform

expectations, this would become another shorter-duration upside driver to top-line numbers.

•• Industry datapoints for NCNO: (1) MBA mortgage forecasts largely unchanged for 2026

since the March iteration; (2) BLND sounded cautious on the mortgage space, while

ALKT+QTWO sounded good around broader banking. First, the Mortgage Bankers

Association (MBA) publishes a monthly forecast for mortgage volumes and mortgage rates

that can be a helpful proxy given NCNO's mortgage business continues to shift more toward

volume-based platform pricing, and in the May iteration we find mortgage volume estimates

largely unchanged at ~4.2% total mortgage volume growth y/y expected for 2026 – this

compares to 4.1% growth expected in the March iteration of the forecast, which was the last

iteration available as of NCNO's earnings call on 3/31, when FY27 guidance was set. NCNO, by

comparison, is guiding to ~1% subscription revenue growth in mortgage, which would be

below this ~4% volume growth projection, although it's worth remembering customers may

still be operating below their minimum volume commitments – nonetheless, we expect this

~1% mortgage growth guide to prove conservative as the year goes on. The MBA also expects

slightly higher 30-year mortgage rate expectations baked into MBA's projection at 6.5% for

2026 (vs the March forecast of 6.2%) and also assumes mortgage rates stay higher for longer –