Target Corporation "Bullseye in Sight" (Buy) Lasser

Research evidence excerpt

Target Corporation "Bullseye in Sight" (Buy) Lasser

siness benefited from the increase in in-store

traffic. It's digital comp outpaced store comps, reaching 8.7% vs 1.9% in 2025. It

continues to improve its same-day shipping capabilities, which grew 27% in the

quarter. Plus, its continuing to grow its alternative revenue streams. It grew GMV

on its 3P marketplace (TGT+) at 60% in the quarter, while increasing advertising

revenue by 50% (this excludes COGS offsets). We continue to believe that these

income streams provide margin upside to TGT if it's able to continue growing

them faster than expectations.

How are the bulls reacting?

We heard from several bulls today, as the decline in TGT's stock price drove some

confusion. To bulls, 1Q represented a strong quarter with improvements in

fundamentals across the board and a beat vs. heightened expectations on comp

& EPS headed into the print. This group felt that TGT checked all the boxes it needed to

in this print. They don't view higher SG&A as a material issue, as it represents an

investment into the customer experience and should set the stage for TGT to sustain its

comp momentum into the back half of the year. Now with more conservative guidance,

bulls like the setup for TGT to beat and raise guidance throughout the year. Plus, bulls

see an attractive near-term catalyst if credit card data shows TGT's comp holding up

while lapping Nintendo Switch sales in the next few weeks. Overall, bulls see EPS

reaching upwards of $10 in 2027E.

How are the bears reacting?

The main message from the bears is that this quarter might be as good as it gets for TGT.

1Q saw the easiest compare in FY 2026, with increasingly difficult comps as the year

progresses. 2Q presents a particularly challenging obstacle, as it will need to lap