MARR (AO) | Hold | Margin likely to stay weak through H1 2026

Research evidence excerpt

MARR (AO) | Hold | Margin likely to stay weak through H1 2026

g on margins until Q2 2026, after which a gradual improvement should

materialise.

What’s new?

Market sentiment ahead of the summer season remains positive in terms of volumes, despite expectations for a lower number of

American and Middle Eastern customers. Management highlighted that demand from European upper-middle-income customers

should partially offset the weaker contribution from international clientele.

Management highlighted that H1 2026 top-line growth is expected to be broadly in line with the full-year trend, i.e. around +3%

YOY (vs. our current estimate of +2.9%). From a profitability standpoint, the internalisation strategy is still expected to weigh on

Q2 2026 results (overlapping costs related to the operation of two facilities should also have an impact), while transport costs are

expected to have a more pronounced impact, putting additional pressure on EBITDA margin (including IFRS-16 effects).

Nevertheless, the negative impact should be partially mitigated by the flexible contracts introduced post-COVID, which help

protect gross margin.

On average, price lists for the Street Market channel are revised every 1–2 months (on average every 30 days), while revisions for

National Accounts typically occur every 3–4 months. Only one client benefits from a four-month price revision cycle.

Management highlighted that cost synergies are expected to become visible from H2 onwards, which we estimate should support

a c.+10bps YOY improvement in EBITDA margin (including IFRS-16 effects), at the moment.

Our investment view

The current trading newsflow supports our Hold stance on 2026 expectations, with low-single-digit top-line growth anticipated,