MARR (1K) | Hold | Q1 2026 slightly better, but clouds ahead

Research evidence excerpt

MARR (1K) | Hold | Q1 2026 slightly better, but clouds ahead

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Management insights

Management remains confident in achieving its 2026 growth targets, with April trading already in

line with expectations. Confidence is supported by industry data from Confcommercio, which

showed Hotels, Meals and Out-of-Home consumption growing by 0.5% in Q1 2026, further

highlighting MARR’s ability to gain market share. From Q2 onwards, the impact of the

internalisation process should progressively normalise, as the initiative (launched in April 2025

and completed in February 2026) was aimed at bringing logistics operations in-house to enhance

the value proposition offered to clients. Going forward, management’s focus will shift towards

operational optimisation and cost reduction, with benefits expected to become increasingly

visible from H2 2026. On the inflationary side, after a challenging start to the year, trends have

gradually normalised, although input costs remain above prior-year levels. In this context, the

company reiterated its intention to pass through incremental costs to customers where possible.

Finally, the increase in NWC was mainly driven by higher inventory levels related to the storage of

seafood products. However, the rise in Days Inventory Outstanding (from 54 days in 2025 to 61

days in 2026) also reflects a structural component. For this reason, we have revised upwards our

working capital assumptions, and we are accounting for an inflationary pressure.

Inflation resurges, putting margins at risk

April 2026 marked a sharp reversal in inflation dynamics, with headline inflation accelerating to

+2.8% YOY, mainly driven by non-regulated energy costs, which recorded the most significant

swing (from –2.0% to +9.9% YOY), particularly due to higher gas prices.