Latest Checks - Does the Consumer Wear Prada or Nada?

Research evidence excerpt

Latest Checks - Does the Consumer Wear Prada or Nada?

May 18, 2026

Leisure

(+) Cruise: Despite geopolitical volatility, our cruise checks suggest pricing is holding up in the +LSD to +MSD range

for the year while bookings continue to grow. Cancellations have remained at low levels. While there is choppiness in

European bookings since the start of the Iran war we think the impact has been mostly manageable.

(=/-) Gaming: Trends on the Vegas strip remain consistent with prior checks. Luxury continues to outperform economy,

RevPARs by month are largely driven by convention traffic, and leisure travel remains soft.

(=/-) Lodging: Trends are decelerating in lodging as elevated gas prices limit lower-income travel budgets, and World

Cup bookings come in below expectations.

(=) Toys: Retail trends are muted and roughly flat to up +LSD YTD. Pokemon, squishy toys, and Lego all seem to be

outperforming the broader market. Feedback on Hasbro continues to be more constructive than Mattel.

(+) Off Road Vehicles - ATVs & Side-by-Sides (SxS): Industry Retail has accelerated into April and the start of May.

The powersports consumer remains resilient. Both BRP and Polaris sales are performing well through April and into

May, but optimism skewed toward PII.

(=) Boats: Trends have been choppy depending on the dealer, region, and product type. Premium continues to

outperform value categories though the industry as whole remains somewhat soft, particularly relative to expectations

coming into the year which was assumed to be a return to growth.

(=/+) RVs: Retail trends have improved over the last several months. Retail in March was very weak, April improved

modestly, and dealers saw modest growth in May (although it is still early). Despite the improving trends our dealer