Parcel Pieces: Recent Macro Trends Holding; What Will May/June Bring?

Research evidence excerpt

Parcel Pieces: Recent Macro Trends Holding; What Will May/June Bring?

Transportation | Surface Transportation

May 20, 2026

Jonathan Chappell, CFA Parcel Pieces: Recent Macro Trends

212-497-0827

jonathan.chappell@evercoreisi.com Holding; What Will May/June Bring?

Alex Johnson We are updating (with all relevant April data) the macro correlation

212-497-0810 analysis we’ve been using for the last few years to help identify trends

alex.johnson@evercoreisi.com and inflection points in the important fundamental revenue drivers, both

Krystal Song Domestic and International, of FDX and UPS. The proprietary blended

212-497-0822 macro factors, consisting mostly of Retail Sales, Industrial Production,

krystal.song@evercoreisi.com

and China Exports (weighted, lagged, and stacked over 2 years)

provide R-squared outcomes mostly in the 70-90% range with

Domestic and International revenue and package actuals for FDX and

UPS. With one month of data left to go for FDX (and two more for UPS,

thus this report serves as an intra-quarter update, not as a preview for

either company), international export and retail sales trends from macro

data appear mostly stable at a strong growth rate (despite geopolitical

headwinds including higher retail gas prices) partially offset by ongoing

softness in industrial production. With the data we have presently, it

appears most revenue estimates are relatively appropriate (some

potential upside, some potential downside – see bullets below), and

May updates (including LTL operational updates as it relates to FedEx

Freight) will go a long way in determining where our final revenue (and

EPS) estimates shake out. Please see below for the April updates and

where our revenue forecasts are tracking relative to historical

correlation outputs.