DBDaily: PMIs mostly weaker; webinar replay on geopolitics

Research evidence excerpt

DBDaily: PMIs mostly weaker; webinar replay on geopolitics

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

DBDaily 21 May 2026

PMIs mostly weaker; webinar replay on

Phil Odonaghoe geopolitics

Economist

+61-2-8258-1606

Dinner notes from George Saravelos; Australian tax reform and property

investors

***Webinar replay: DB’s Geopolitics team on decoding the Trump-Xi Summit. 60

minutes, here.

US equities were little changed Thursday, S&P up 0.2%. Oil also steady, down

0.2% to USD104.79/bbl. US10yr yields down 2bps to 4.57%.

US manufacturing PMI beat, up 0.8pts to 55.3 in preliminary read for May.

Services missed, down 0.1pt to 50.9. Big drop in Philly Fed manufacturing, down

~27pts to flat.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI missed, down 0.8pt to 51.4 in preliminary read for

May, and services missed as well, down 1.2pts to 46.4, consensus looked for a

small rise. Details show a rise in input prices, but modest pass through into output

prices – margins operating as a buffer.

Big miss on Australia employment, down 18.6k in April, consensus at +15k.

Unemployment lifted 0.2ppts to 4.5%, now ¼ppt above the RBA’s forecast for

Q2. The survey is volatile from month to month, but the weakness is consistent

with the historic drop in business confidence following the Iran shock, which has

left Australia exposed to both higher prices and supply uncertainty. After three

consecutive 25bp hikes, DB’s base case is for the cash rate to remain on hold for

the remainder of this year.

Michael Hsueh notes that despite reports of increased vessel transits through the

Strait, the average rate of petroleum liquid exports has not changed. But since

April, the share of Gulf exports from countries other than Iran has increased, with

Iraq and the UAE having the largest shares in May. Meanwhile, easily observable