NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) Buy: New narratives key focus vs earnings & roadmap

Research evidence excerpt

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) Buy: New narratives key focus vs earnings & roadmap

ing significant earnings

52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

upside along with consistent “beat and raise” financial results. However, since the

350.00

buzz around sovereign AI and the opportunity from neoclouds, no new narrative has

emerged, and NVIDIA shares have underperformed the SOX over the last six months 225.00

despite having two GTC events and two sets of financial results that beat estimates 100.00

and raised expectations. Hence, we believe AI GPU earnings momentum and its 05/25 Target price:11/25325.00 05/26

upcoming Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra product roadmap have become less meaningful High: 235.74 Low: 131.29 Current: 222.32

narratives for significant re-rating or share price upside potential. Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

Potential new narratives becoming bigger key focus going forward: Despite the Frank Lee*

ever increasing CAPEX trend by CSPs that shows no signs of abating, NVIDIA now Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

has to share the CAPEX with memory makers, AI networking, and server CPU frank.lee@hsbc.com.hk

vendors. Hence, NVIDIA needs to show evidence of diversifying its non-CSP +852 2996 6916

customer base to fuel its AI GPU momentum. New TAM opportunities via agentic AI Pulkit Aggarwal*

Associate

server CPUs and its recent optics-related deals could also potentially be emerging Bangalore

narratives that could lead to more significant earnings revisions or re-rating.

Retain Buy; raise target price to USD325 (from USD295): We raise our FY27/FY28

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

EPS estimates by 3%/27% on higher datacentre revenue estimates.