Australia Banks: The Game Has Changed For Mortgages

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Banks: The Game Has Changed For Mortgages

Idea

May 21, 2026 08:58 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Banks | Asia Pacific Richard E Wiles

Equity Analyst

The Game Has Changed For Richard.Wiles@morganstanley.comSally Hong, CFA +61 2 9770-1537

Sally.Hong@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1698

Mortgages

Australia Banks

Asia Pacific

Changes to property-related tax concessions could have a Industry View Cautious

profound effect on the demand for investment properties. In Related Research

2027, we believe mortgage growth could slow to ~3-4% and this Aust Macro+: The Game Has Changed for

could also result in additional margin headwinds. Housing (20 May 2026)

Aust Banks: Budget Implications: End of the

Investors have been the driver of stronger mortgage growth: The pick up in Housing Super-Cycle? (12 May 2026)

Australian housing loan growth from ~5.5% in 2024 to ~7.5% at the start of 2026 Aust Banks: Time For Caution (23 Mar 2026)

has been almost entirely driven by investment property loan (IPL) growth, which

has lifted from ~6% to ~10% (refer Exhibit 6 ). Investors accounted for ~39% of new

loans in 2025, compared with a range of ~24-45% over >20 years (refer Exhibit 13 ).

New investor commitments reached a record ~A$45bn in the December quarter,

with ~80% used for established properties (refer Exhibit 14 ).

The game has changed: We believe that favourable tax treatment is a key reason

why there has been a 30-year housing 'super cycle' in Australia and why investors

account for ~33% of the ~A$2.6tr residential mortgage market. Against this

backdrop, changes to property-related tax concessions in the Budget could have a

profound effect on the demand for investment properties. For a detailed analysis,