Multi-Industry: CoTD: Digging Deeper on Q1 Channel Build

Research evidence excerpt

Multi-Industry: CoTD: Digging Deeper on Q1 Channel Build

Idea

May 21, 2026 10:07 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Christopher Snyder, CFA

Equity Analyst

CoTD: Digging Deeper on Q1 Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.comBrandon Knutson +1 212 761-4470

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

Channel Build Toby Okwara

Toby.Okwara@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1693

Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest Christine Yao

investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company ResearchChristine.Yao@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-4193

events, or just ones that we find interesting.

Multi-Industry

Exhibit 1: Screening for Pull Forward Risk: Chart below plots Q1 sales vs March North America

Industry View Attractive

inventory build. The verticals most at risk are those with sluggish Q1 demand

trends but then saw inventory build into March

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, US Census Bureau

While we believe US short-cycle + Data Center capex trends are improving in line

w/ our 2026 outlook (Layering in Cyclical Torque), we also think that Q1 order

rates overstate underlying demand + activity levels due to a combination of

channel build + extending lead times. Before we dive into the nuance, it is

important to take stock of the big picture – the reason that both Industrial & Data

Center customers feel the urgency to build inventory + lock up supply further into

the future is because demand + return signals are improving. But while the catalyst

is driven by positive fundamentals, it is not a positive for the equities, which

have already moved higher in response to the strong YTD trends but that very

same pickup could serve as a headwind to 2H momentum… and equities trade

on rate of change.