China Property: Monthly Tracker: Mixed April Data; We Stay Prudent on Sales Recovery

Research evidence excerpt

China Property: Monthly Tracker: Mixed April Data; We Stay Prudent on Sales Recovery

Idea

May 21, 2026 07:35 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Property | Asia Pacific Stephen Cheung, CFA

Equity Analyst

Monthly Tracker: Mixed April Stephen.Cheung@morganstanley.comCara Zhu +852 3963-0385

Cara.Zhu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7117

Data; We Stay Prudent on Sales

China Property

Asia Pacific

Industry View In-LineRecovery

Related reports:

Home sales declines narrowed in April on a low base. We expect 1. An Inflection or Another False Start? (18 May

the recent strength in secondary home sales to moderate in 2026)

coming months, given still-elevated inventory, weak buyer 2. AlphaWise China Property Survey, Mar-26:

Worsening Sentiment (10 Apr 2026)

sentiment, and limited improvement in household income and

3. Managed Housing Downcycle to Last Another

leverage. We recommend waiting for greater clarity and

Two Years (25 January 2026)

remaining selective on stock picks. 4. 2026 Outlook: Physical Market Stays

Challenging; Diverging Outperformance ofBe selective: With uncertainty around sales sustainability, we see industry risk-

Alpha Plays (10 December 2025)reward skewing to the downside after the share price rally in early May. We

recommend investors wait for more clarity on a potential inflection, and pinpoint

real beneficiaries that enjoy both industry beta and self-help alpha. We maintain CR

Land (1109.HK) as our Top Pick, followed by C&D (1908.HK) - both have a solid

EPS outlook, decent dividend yields and medium-term re-rating potential.

(+) Home sales decline narrowed on low base: CREIS 65-city primary sales volume

fell 3% y-y (vs. -15% y-y in March) and 33-city secondary sales volume increased 8%

y-y (vs.