BT Group plc: Solid KPIs with FY27 and FY30 cash flow targets reiterated

Research evidence excerpt

BT Group plc: Solid KPIs with FY27 and FY30 cash flow targets reiterated

Update

May 21, 2026 06:42 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MBT Group plc | Europe Terence Tsui

Equity Analyst

Solid KPIs with FY27 and FY30 Terence.Tsui@morganstanley.comEmmet B Kelly +44 20 7425-3095

Emmet.Kelly@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6830

cash flow targets reiterated Harrison Williams, CFA

Harrison.Williams@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6627

Reaction to earnings Lindsey C Zastawny

Strengthens our thesis In-line Largely unchanged Lindsey.Zastawny@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1237

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

BT Group plc (BT.L, BT/A LN)

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

ADRBT.N

Telecommunications Services | United Kingdom

Key Takeaways Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Q4 saw a 1% miss on revenues, but a 1% beat on EBITDA. Price target 260p

Shr price, close (May 20, 2026) 231p

Operating trends were good with lower Openreach line-losses and growth in 52-Week Range 242-160p

Mkt cap, curr (mn) £23,000

broadband, but mobile net adds were negative. Net debt (03/26e) (mn)* £15,284

EV, curr (mn)* £38,430

FY27 guide was similar to consensus and FY30 cash flow targets were reiterated

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

- a positive, in our view.

New dividend policy with LSD / MSD growth in FY27, but "enhanced" cash returns

in the future once a BBB+ credit rating is attained.

We expect shares to modestly outperform today.

Further highlights were:

1. Q4 revenues and EBITDA were a 1% miss and a 1% beat respectively compared

to consensus.

2. Revenue and EBITDA growth were negative (as expected): Group revenues

were -4% YoY (Q3 -4.0%). Group EBITDA was 3% YoY (Q3 -1%).

3.