BT Group plc: Q1 in line; KPIs solid

Research evidence excerpt

BT Group plc: Q1 in line; KPIs solid

Update

July 23, 2026 06:47 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MBT Group plc | Europe Terence Tsui

Equity Analyst

Q1 in line; KPIs solid Terence.Tsui@morganstanley.comEmmet B Kelly +44 20 7425-3095

Emmet.Kelly@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6830

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Harrison Williams, CFA

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Harrison.Williams@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6627

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Lindsey C Zastawny

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Lindsey.Zastawny@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1237

BT Group plc (BT.L, BT/A LN)

Key Takeaways ADRBT.N

Q1 saw a 0.6% beat on revenues, was in line with analyst expectations on Telecommunications Services | United Kingdom

EBITDA. Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Operating trends were good, with similar Openreach line losses and growth in Price target 255p

Shr price, close (Jul 22, 2026) 196p

broadband and mobile. 52-Week Range 242-173p

Mkt cap, curr (mn) £19,504

FY27 and FY30 guidance was confirmed. Net debt (03/27e) (mn)* £15,780

EV, curr (mn)* £36,199

We expect shares to trade up modestly on the back of better consumer KPIs.

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Further highlights were:

1. Q1 revenues and EBITDA were a 0.6% beat and a 0.2% beat, respectively,

compared to consensus.

2. Revenue and EBITDA growth were flat / slightly declining: Group revenues

were 0% YoY (Q4 -4%). Group EBITDA was -1% YoY (Q4 +3%).

3. Consumer – KPIs mixed across Broadband and Mobile: Total revenue was flat

YoY (Q4 -1%). Q1 EBITDA was -3% (Q4 +3%). Broadband net adds were +1k (vs +6k

in Q4) and mobile net adds were +13k (vs -12k in Q4). Meanwhile, broadband ARPU