BNP Paribas: Capital optionality

Research evidence excerpt

BNP Paribas: Capital optionality

6, which leads to faster EPS accretion. We are now 10-30bps above consensus

French Banks: Higher SII buffers

CET1, and 20% above buyback estimates in 2026-28. We think capital will be the

BNP Paribas: Live at EFC 2026

main driver of the shares, and where consensus will change most. On earnings, we

BNP Paribas: Asset Management Deep Dive

are 2-3% ahead (C/I at 56% by 2028 vs cons closer to 57%).

French Banks: Which one to pick from here?

Exploring capital optionality. BNP ultimately committed to 13% CET1 in November, BNP Paribas: New CET1 target and buyback

but we note other banks have been proactive on the capital front, explicitly Further thoughts on the Sudan case / Headlines

targeting a reduction in RWAs below COE (e.g. Santander), or exploring a related to Sudan case

rationalisation of footprint where activities are non-strategic (e.g. SocGen). We European Capital Markets: Savings and

explore what a similar exercise could mean for BNP. The bank operates across 64 Investment Union: Support Accelerating

countries, with ~900 legal entities: we focus our analysis on stakes, and retail Global Banks & Exchanges: Digital Rails, Real

businesses in geographies beyond its core European footprint. This leads us to look Economics: Digital Assets & the Future of

at the local accounts of 40 different entities, and we estimate that BNP has Wholesale Banking

potential to unlock ~80bps of capital via disposals (rather than the current 20-

40bps still in the pipeline). Aside from capital, we think reducing complexity would Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

also lead to lower costs.