BNP Paribas: 2Q26: CET1 at 13%

Research evidence excerpt

BNP Paribas: 2Q26: CET1 at 13%

Update

July 23, 2026 06:21 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MBNP Paribas | Europe Giulia Aurora Miotto, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26: CET1 at 13% Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.comNed Tidmarsh +44 20 7425-5344

Research Associate

Ned.Tidmarsh@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0122

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA, BNP FP)

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher

ADRBNPP.DE

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Banks | France

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

Price target €115.00

Key Takeaways Shr52-Weekprice,Rangeclose (Jul 22, 2026) €107.18-65.12€106.78

Mkt cap, curr (mn) €117,351

PPOP is a 7% beat (2% ex CC), mostly driven by better revenues Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €11,900

EV, curr (mn)* €124,011

By division, the largest beats are in Corporate Centre and Securities Services, but

CIB and CPBS overall were quite strong, while Arval was a notable miss * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

CET1 is a 10bps beat, as the bank reaches 13% ahead of schedule.

We expect a small positive first share price reaction

2Q results: clean PPOP beat & better capital. On an adjusted basis, PPOP was 2%

ahead of MSe and 5% ahead of consensus, with revenues 2%/4% ahead, partly

offset by adjusted costs being 2%/3% higher. Total provisions (including for legal

risks) were around 10% above both MSe and consensus, leaving adjusted PBT 1%/3%

ahead. Reported PBT was 2%/5% ahead and net income 3% ahead of both. The

highlight in the quarter was the CET1 beat, as CET reached 13% target ahead of

schedule. Group-level guidance is unchanged, although Corporate Centre guidance

has improved (from -1.4bn to -1.2bn).