European Metals & Mining Tracker: Atlantic Tug

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Tracker: Atlantic Tug

Idea

May 21, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

Atlantic Tug Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Competing for aluminium metal Adahna Ekoku

Exhibit 1: The Rotterdam (Europe) duty unpaid premium has caught up with the Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Ferdinand Huber

Midwest (US) duty unpaid premium

Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Rotterdam duty unpaid premium Midwest duty unpaid premium

600 US$/t RMBBrianMorganMorganStanley Proprietary Limited+

500 Equity Analyst

Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

4th June 2025: US

400 aluminium tariffs Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

increased to 50%

Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

300 Commodities Strategist

Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

200 Ben Kelson

28th February 2026: Research Associate

Start of Middle East Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

100 Conflict

Mining 101

Mining & Steel Equities

Mining Sector Valuation Long Term Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26

Steel Sector Valuation Long Term

Source: Platts, Morgan Stanley Research Commodity Price Signals

Commodity Price Forecast

Two markets, one supply pool. European aluminium premia are emerging as the

marginal clearing price for Atlantic Basin units. The Platts duty-unpaid Rotterdam

premium, at US$525/t, is drawing Canadian metal into Europe as regional economics

screen more competitively vs the US Midwest duty-unpaid market. With both

Europe and the US structurally short aluminium, the two regions are competing for