Vivendi SA: The plot thickens

Research evidence excerpt

Vivendi SA: The plot thickens

Equity Research

European Media

20 May 2026

Vivendi SA

The plot thickens

Ahead of Friday's Court hearing, advocate general says

Bolloré has control. Two key drivers of share price still: 1)

Court of Appeal ruling end of June (bid or no bid?); and 2) VIV.PA/VIV FP OVERWEIGHT Unchanged

whether Vivendi unwinds or not, if no bid. We detail the European Media NEUTRAL

current situation and update our probability-based scenarios Unchanged

here. Price Target UnchangedEUR 3.20

Price (19-May-26) EUR 2.24

According to several press articles, the advocate general's opinion is that Bolloré had Potential Upside/Downside +42.6%

control of Vivendi. The advocate general is the state lawyer and is supposed to be Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

independent in this case. This arguably increases the chance that the Court of Appeal rules

that Bolloré has control of Vivendi. The Court of Appeal sits on the subject this Friday and a Market Cap (EUR mn) 2276

ruling is expected sometimes in June (we are likely to get the exact date on Friday). In our Shares Outstanding (mn) 1015.50

view, key to share price performance are the following two factors: (1) At the end of June, Free Float (%) 60.04

the Court of Appeal will decide whether Bolloré's stake constitutes effective control. We 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.9

see this as unlikely based on the notion of control examined, but it cannot be discounted Dividend Yield (%) 1.78

altogether and could force a bid. (2) Vivendi could decide to unwind (sell assets, pay down Return on Equity TTM (%) 0.43

debt, return cash to shareholders) or continue as an investment vehicle (sell assets, pay Current BVPS (EUR) 4.73

down debt, reinvest proceeds). For illustrative purposes only, we examine probability- Source: Bloomberg