Vivendi SA: Catalyst Alert: Court decision due 8 July (positive)

Research evidence excerpt

Vivendi SA: Catalyst Alert: Court decision due 8 July (positive)

Equity Research

2 July 2026

Vivendi SA

Catalyst Alert: Court decision due

8 July (positive)

Court of appeal rules on whether Bolloré has control of VIV.PA/VIV FP OVERWEIGHT

Vivendi on July 8th. We see a 70/30 probability of a control Unchanged

ruling, resulting in 20-30% upside/10-15% downside. We European Media UnchangedNEUTRAL

detail the current situation, background, probabilities and Price Target EUR 3.20

upside/downside in this note. Unchanged

Price (01-Jul-26) EUR 2.22

Potential Upside/Downside +44.4%

Catalyst date: On July 8th, a French Court of Appeal should rule on whether Bolloré has control Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

of Vivendi, using a narrow definition (at AGM based on their 30% stake i.e. c. 42% of votes on the

day; nothing else). Market Cap (EUR mn) 2250

Shares Outstanding (mn) 1015.50Catalyst: If the court finds control (we estimate 70% probability), the AMF is expected to require

Free Float (%) 66.21Bolloré to launch a public offer for Vivendi. Bolloré would then have up to two months to appeal

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 2.0to the Court of Cassation, which typically takes 5-6 months to rule. If the appeal is unsuccessful

Dividend Yield (%) 1.81(or no appeal is filed), a public offer would typically become effective 2-3 months later. Under

Return on Equity TTM (%) 0.43this scenario, a bid could occur approximately 7-11 months after the 8 July ruling. Based on the

Current BVPS (EUR) 4.73Artois/Moncey/Cambodge precedent, we believe any offer price would likely be linked to

Source: Bloomberg

Vivendi's NAV, currently €3.62/share before holding costs and €3.44/share after holding costs.

We see 20-30% upside risk in this scenario. If the court finds no control (30% probability