ASML "Why ASML Is Our Top Pick: Three Key Drivers" (Buy) Bouvignies

Research evidence excerpt

ASML "Why ASML Is Our Top Pick: Three Key Drivers" (Buy) Bouvignies

1) We see potential ASML capacity still

meaningfully higher than demand.

Conclusion: In light of the recent focus on production capabilities and prevailing

concerns that ASML might emerge as a bottleneck in the supply chain, we present

an evaluation of how their capacity could influence supply-demand dynamics. A

critical factor we believe the market has largely overlooked is the enhanced

throughput across various low NA models, coupled with the potential for

system upgrades and shorter cycle times enabled by "fast" shipments.

Although ASML has communicated a capacity of over 80 EUV units in 2027, our

analysis suggests their actual theoretical maximum capacity could exceed 100 units,

excluding additional contributions from fast shipments. Based on our estimates,

production of 100 EUV units at present would represent approximately a 65% YoY

increase in leading-edge capacity, compared to projected demand growth of

around 25-30% YoY in 2027. Conversely, production of 85 tools would indicate

roughly a 34% YoY increase, still exceeding demand expectations, as we believe

extended lithography lead times may drive prebuilding efforts targeting 2028.

Nonetheless, we believe ASML's enhancements in productivity come with a

marginal trade-off in litho intensity, as other equipment categories, such as

deposition and etching, face challenges in keeping pace with this roadmap.

Consequently, lithography-related expenditures are rising at a slower rate

compared to other segments.

Evidence: wafer per month roadmap showing significant productivity

improvement.

Figure 5: Incremental capacity 2027 (kwpm y/y) vs 2026 based on different

shipments - We estimate ASML capacity to be well above demand

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