Evolution AB "€2bn buyback a positive signal" (Sell) Shelley

Research evidence excerpt

Evolution AB "€2bn buyback a positive signal" (Sell) Shelley

Global Research

19 May 2026ab

Evolution AB Equities

Sweden€2bn buyback a positive signal

Recreational Products & Services

12-month rating Sell

We expect focus to shift back to fundamentals

Yesterday, EVO announced a €2bn share buyback, bringing the capital allocation debate 12m price target SKr520.00

to a close. The scale of the buyback was ahead of our previous estimates (as outlined Prior : SKr480.00

below) and, in our view, signals EVO's confidence in both valuation and FCF generation.

Price (19 May 2026) SKr713.00

Our new estimates also demonstrate the tailwind in per share returns, with our FY27 EPS

estimate +2% vs pre-announcement Visible Alpha consensus despite UBSe EBITDA RIC: EVOG.ST BBG: EVO SS

being -5% behind. We now expect the equity story to refocus on fundamentals, albeit at

Trading data and key metrics

a higher valuation than prior to the speculation with the shares now +38% vs YTD lows

52-wk range SKr885.40-515.80

(for no positive revision in consensus EBITDA expectations).

Market cap. SKr143b/US$15.1b

Shares o/s 200m (ORD)

Looking ahead to Q2 (17 July), we see downside risk to consensus Europe estimates.

Free float 66%

UBSe stands at -10% YoY (-3% vs cons) with performance driven by channelisation

Avg. daily volume ('000) 619

headwinds and regulatory volatility in Turkey (see Figure 1EVO'sYoYplayergrowthinalcategoriesexbacarat(ourproxyforEurope)apearsweakervsQ1sofarthisquarter. and Figure 2.WithMaytrendsacontinuationofAprilandalsobelowtheQ1runrate for live casino

player data). This being said, we see potential upside in Asia. UBSe stands at -1% YoY / Avg. daily value (m) SKr370.9

+5% cc (+3% vs cons), with EVO saying at Q1 they made "further progress" on Common s/h equity (12/26E) €3.85b