Defending its market share

Research evidence excerpt

Defending its market share

Evolution

Baccarat & Sic Bo dynamics

We estimate that Baccarat & Sic Bo comprise around 15% of the player count. Interestingly,

some of these tables contribute with a relatively high ARPU (because Speed Baccarat is

a fast-paced, high turnover game). Player data from Alinea Analytics show that Baccarat

activity was unusually high for Evolution between 5 April and 20 April, likely leading to a

strong month of April for Baccarat & Sic Bo tables. However, as we highlight below, the data

suggest that this may not be a recurring event.

Spike in Evo's Baccarat activity...

Between 5 April and 20 April, the player count on Baccarat & Sic Bo tables increased 12% y-

o-y. Notably, the graphs below show that it was not Evo's top five Baccarat & Sic Bo games

that contributed to the spike, but Speed Baccarat tables. In Evo's case, this likely means that

Asia's April revenues are quite strong, but that May and June revenues are relatively similar

to other months.

Top 5 vs. the rest* Speed Baccarat vs. others*

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Alinea Analytics. Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Alinea Analytics.

Footnote: (*) Refers to Evolution's Baccarat & Sic Bo player count Footnote: (*) Refers to Evolution's Baccarat & Sic Bo player count

according to Alinea Analytics. according to Alinea Analytics.

...seemingly at the expense of Pragmatic

Our analysis of Pragmatic’s data suggests a decline in player activity between 5 and 20

April. While the impact is less pronounced than for Evo, we believe Pragmatic may have

experienced issues in its Baccarat offering, potentially driving some temporary migration

to Evo’s Baccarat tables. Notably, the weakness appears concentrated in Speed Baccarat

tables rather than across Pragmatic’s broader game portfolio.