Stellantis NV: On our way to Detroit: thoughts on likely ambitious CMD targets

Research evidence excerpt

Stellantis NV: On our way to Detroit: thoughts on likely ambitious CMD targets

, while Ford’s closest comparable businesses, Ford Blue and Ford Pro, 52-Week Range 5.31 EUR-10.49 EUR

reached 8.1% and 11.4% respectively. Stellantis North America, by contrast, was only at Market Value (mn) 20,307 EUR

1.6% AOI margin in Q1 2026, far below both peers and its own 2021-23 level of around Shares Outstanding (mn) 3,140.1 / 3,140.1

15%. We expect Stellantis to anchor its CMD ambition around at least 8% AOI margin by Average Daily Value (mn) 246.84 USD

2030 (BofAe: 5.9%; cons: 7.3%). However, we would expect any recovery to be heavily Free Float 57.1%

back-end loaded, as the full North America model renewal, including Jeep Wrangler, BofA Ticker / Exchange XVWGF / MIL

Grand Cherokee and Ram 1500, only comes in 2029. BofA Ticker / Exchange STLA / NYS

Bloomberg / Reuters STLAM IM / STLAM.MIThe bigger risks sit outside North America

While we see some upside in North America, other key regions look more challenging. ROE (2026E) 1.6%

Europe is c45% of FY26 shipments and close to 40% of revenues, but margins are Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) 25.3%

around breakeven, with Chinese competition rising and the model offensive largely

behind Stellantis. Renault is the relevant benchmark at 5-7% medium-term margin, but it

is already currently above 5%. MEA and South America are an even bigger risk: they still

generate double-digit margins and c60% of group AOI, but we expect localised Chinese Glossary:

production to drive much tougher price competition over time. The company needs to AOI: Adjusted operating income

explain how it can absorb this rising pressure while keeping capex under control. CMD: Capital Markets Day

U/P reiterated: 2030 targets unlikely to move the debate FCF: Free Cash Flow