Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) A strong 4Q as with other OMCs – BPCL maintaining capex guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) A strong 4Q as with other OMCs – BPCL maintaining capex guidance

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

20 May 2026

Bharat Petroleum Corporation

(BPCL) Overweight

BPCL.NS, BPCL IN

A strong 4Q as with other OMCs – BPCL maintaining Price (20 May 26):Rs293.75

capex guidance ▼Price Target (Mar-27):Rs385.00 Prior (Mar-27):Rs465.00

BPCL reported 4QFY26 PAT of Rs.31.9bn, hurt by a large impairment at BPRL

(Rs.43.5bn). This was stronger than we expected – in line with trends at HPCL and Head of India Research

IOCL. Strong refining margins in March and some delayed impact from crude pricing Sanjay Mookim AC

likely supported earnings for the company. Despite the Rs3.9/liter hike in petrol/diesel (91-22) 6157-3600

prices, margins for BPCL (and the other two OMCs) are under material pressure. This sanjay.mookim@jpmorgan.com

pressure will likely show up in 1Q earnings. BPCL management suggests they can Atishy Rathi, CFA

absorb the stress for some time – and have maintained their full year FY27 capex (9122) 6157-3589

atishy.rathi@jpmchase.com

guidance of Rs.250bn (including initial work on the new Andhra refinery). OMC J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, J.P. Morgan

stocks are positioned precariously: a) continued high oil prices, a weaker rupee and Tower, Santacruz(E), Mumbai - 400098, SEBI

Registration: INH000001873, (91-22) 6157-3000.

modest retail price increases could cause negative cash flow and increasing leverage

at the companies, but b) reopening of the Strait and the consequent reduction in crude

could help drive a relief rally in these stocks. BPCL has lower PnL volatility (due to Key Changes (FYE Mar)

low current leverage) and valuations benefit from E&P upsides in Mozambique and Prev Cur Δ

Brazil.