Target Corporation Very Strong Results with Consumer/Durability in Focus; Bracketing the Stock Range

Research evidence excerpt

Target Corporation Very Strong Results with Consumer/Durability in Focus; Bracketing the Stock Range

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

20 May 2026

Target Corporation Neutral

TGT, TGT US

Very Strong Results with Consumer/Durability in Focus; Price (19 May 26):$127.24

Bracketing the Stock Range

Retailing – Broadlines & Hardlines /

Leisure

Christopher Horvers, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-1316

christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

Christian Carlino, CFA

(1-212) 622-9145

TGT’s release was strong, as expected, with 5.6% SSS above our raised/ christian.carlino@jpmorgan.com

Street-high of 4.3% and above our previewed 4.5% expectation, with EPS of Jolie Wasserman

$1.71, 20% above Consensus Metrix and close to our $1.68. EPS grew 32% (1-212) 622-1961

against depressed levels a year ago and margins were led by gross margin jolie.wasserman@jpmchase.com

upside. The company raised guidance to the higher end of the prior $7.50- J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

$8.50, and while it did not guide to 2Q, it noted sales are expected to be up every

qtr.

Our take: very strong release but not unexpected with investors focused on

durability. Comps were better, but there were bullish expectations anchored off

the $2.03 it earned in 1Q24. More importantly, the overhang of near-term harder

comparisons and fading stimulus/higher gas prices is a hill that all retailers must

climb with concerns that TGT does well when the consumer is bullish but faces

share headwinds when the tide recedes as discussed in our preview and Proprietary

Market Share Analysis. Assuming $8.50 in earnings, the high end of the guide, the

bulls have argued 16x ($136) but compressed retail multiples given macro

concerns could hold it at 14x ($119) in the near term, in our view.