MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (8725) 4Q results: Guidance, shareholder returns both broadly in line with expectations

Research evidence excerpt

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (8725) 4Q results: Guidance, shareholder returns both broadly in line with expectations

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

20 May 2026

MS&AD Insurance Group

Holdings (8725) Neutral

8725.T, 8725 JP

4Q results: Guidance, shareholder returns both broadly Price (20 May 26):¥4,420

in line with expectations Price Target (Dec-26):¥4,500

Neutral: MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (MS&AD) announced FY2025 Japan Equity Research

results, FY2026 guidance, and medium-term targets for FY2030 after the market

Insurance, Securities, Diversified

close. FY2026 IFRS-based adjusted profit guidance of ¥800 billion is close to our Financials

¥801.8 billion estimate, and the company guides for DPS growth of ¥10 YoY to AC Koki Sato

¥170 (our estimate ¥165). The ¥190 billion share buyback that is to run through

(81-3) 6736-8609

mid-November 2026 is considerably higher than our ¥145 billion estimate but koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

comes as no surprise, since we pointed to possible upside of around ¥50 billion Yuka Azami

when we revised up our FY2025 earnings estimates on May 11. (81-3) 6736-8619

yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

• FY2026 guidance summary: MS&AD estimates that IFRS-based adjusted

profit (profits available to fund returns, comprising consolidated net profit and

prescribed adjustments, such as adding in gains on strategic shareholdings)

will fall ¥118.7 billion YoY to ¥800 billion. However, we do not see the

guidance as negative, considering that lower gains on strategic shareholding

sales (–¥125.2 billion) account for just about all of the profit decline and that

FY2026 guidance envisions a rebound in profits (+¥178.9 billion at the pretax

level) from natural catastrophe losses, after a low figure last year. We note that