Thematic Research: The Dragon and the Eagle: Decoding China-US Ties After Beijing

Research evidence excerpt

Thematic Research: The Dragon and the Eagle: Decoding China-US Ties After Beijing

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Strategy Date

North America 18 May 2026

Thematic Research

The Dragon and the Eagle: Decoding

China-US Ties After Beijing

Miha Hribernik

Executive Summary Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Asia

n In line with our expectations, the summit between presidents Xi and Trump +852-6319-6271

was light on deliverables but heavy on positive optics and commitments to

political guardrails. The summit outcomes should keep China-US relations Yi Xiong, Ph.D.

stable over the medium term, even as competition continues and thorny Chief Economist

geopolitical issues remain. +852-2203 6139

n The coming months could see progress on trade and investment pledges,

as well as dialogue on AI safety. President Xi’s expected US visit on 24

September will be a key watchpoint for further deal-making.

n The lack of specifics on most deliverables raises downside risks around

implementation and disagreements akin to those following the 2020 Phase

One Trade deal, although it also opens the door to some commitments

(such as on Boeing jet purchases) potentially exceeding initial expectations.

Progress on increased market access and investment could be constrained

by national security concerns.

n The summit does not appear to have produced breakthroughs on

geopolitical issues. We cannot exclude the possibility of further tensions

and economic restrictions over the Iran conflict. The issue of Taiwan

remains a key downside risk in China-US relations, where any progress on

a US$14bn US arms sale to Taipei could test stability.

n The long-term outlook for China-US relations remains fundamentally

competitive. The summit did not address structural competition across