TD Cowen Weekly Airline Shuttle

Research evidence excerpt

TD Cowen Weekly Airline Shuttle

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

May 16, 2026

■Consumer: Airlines TD Cowen Weekly Airline Shuttle

Tom Fitzgerald, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

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New exhibits add KAYAK weekly fare and jet fuel spot/futures data. Sentiment remains

tom.fitzgerald@tdsecurities.com

negative: fare strength vs softening credit card transactions & weaker TSA volumes (Mar

revised up, Apr down; May negative), with Easter noise and possible pull-forward. Rising

fuel and no 2H26 normalization risk margin pressure. DAL/UAL seen as most resilient; price-

sensitive demand and liquidity risks persist.

New to report: We added exhibits for weekly economy fares from KAYAK and jet fuel spot/

futures pricing.

Summer Of Our Discontent

Investor sentiment remains negative. While air fares continue to see heady y/y increases,

competitor data showed credit card transactions decelerating below while TSA volumes have

also been softer. Data for TSA was revised higher for March but lower for April. May has thus

far also been down y/y.

The Easter shift is likely causing some noise. It is possible we see a bounce back as we head

into peak season. However, it seems like some bookings were pulled forward followed by more

demand elasticity as consumers push back against higher prices.

Also of concern is the rise in fuel since airlines issued guidance and the increasing likelihood

we do not see a 2H26 normalization. The combination of softer load factors and higher fuel

does not bode well for revisions.

Investors broadly share our view of Delta and United being the most resilient given diverse

revenues, healthy balance sheets, and exposure to higher income consumers. We also

concerned that price sensitive consumers run out of gas in 2H26. Airlines without corporate