Hanold's Weekly U.S. Natural Gas Tracker & Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Hanold's Weekly U.S. Natural Gas Tracker & Outlook

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Scott Hanold (Analyst)

(512) 708-6354,

scott.hanold@rbccm.com

Samuel Cox (Senior

Associate)

(512) 708-6309,

samuel.cox@rbccm.com

May 14, 2026 Octavian Jordan (AVP)

(212) 618-3012,

octavian.jordan@rbccm.com Hanold's Weekly U.S. Natural Gas Tracker & OutlookRESEARCH 5/14/26 Weekly Storage Injection Neutral to Expectations

Our view: A potentially strong El Niño is brewing, which could be good for natural gas demand in

the summer but if it persists into winter would be bearish. NOAA puts an 82% probability on El Niño

emerging within 2–3 months and AccuWeather flagged a potential "Super El Niño" status by late 2026.

El Niño could create above normal summer temperatures in the southern US driving cooling demand.

Henry Hub front-month natural gas prices traded range bound at $2.75–$2.95/Mcf this week, oscillating

as the market weighed early-season cooling demand against abundant supply during the spring shoulder

season. NOAA's 8-14 day outlook called for above-normal temperatures across nearly all states. On theEQUITY

supply side, the EIA raised its 2026 dry gas production forecast to 110 Bcf/d, with output averaging 107

Bcf/d on rising Permian-associated volumes. Today’s weekly storage inventory data point of an 85 Bcf

injection was neutral compared to the 87 Bcf injection consensus median expectation. The injection

compares to last year’s same-week 109 Bcf injection and an 84 Bcf 5-year average injection. We forecast

a 90-95 Bcf injection for next week's report, in line with the 92 Bcf seasonal norm and well below last

year's 119 Bcf injection.

Weekly EIA Storage Recap

• The EIA reported a weekly US storage injection of 85 Bcf, neutral compared to consensus expectations.