BAP: Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

BAP: Model Update

Bapcor Limited

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

High-quality and defensive trade segment. Bapcor's bullBapcor Limited

thesis is centred around its high-quality and defensive Trade

6 125 Weeks 22DEC23 - 13MAY26 divisions that have a demonstrated track record of successful

5 store rollouts and EBITDA margin expansion supported by

4 an increasing proportion of private label sales. We believe

there is additional upside to be extracted from further rollouts

3 and greater private label penetration in the Retail (Avg. 34%)

2 and Trade (Avg. 34%) segments which remains below key

1 TARGETTARGET 0.700.70

CURRENTCURRENT 0.520.52 US comparable companies (O'Reilly Automotive, AutoZone,

0 Advance Auto Parts: >50%).

150m

100m

50m Repositioned to better address adverse conditions. Recent

2024 2025 2026

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M operational and financial performance has been impacted

BAP AU Rel. AUSTRALIAN ALL ORDINAIRES MA 40 weeks by cost-of-living pressures constraining automotive spending,

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target intensified competition in the retail & wholesale channels

Valuation and high executive turnover. We believe the company has

Our rounded $0.70/share 12-month price target is based on repositioned to better address these challenges in FY25 with a

our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis with a forecast period newly appointed & experienced management team expecting

to 2032 and an 13.1% WACC (1.8 Beta and a 2.5% terminal to deliver a simplified cost programme ($20 million - $30

growth rate). Our price target supports our Sector Perform million) following the scale back of Bapcor's Better Than

(Spec. Risk) rating.