First Quantum Minerals Ltd: One Pillar for Free; Upgrade to Overweight

Research evidence excerpt

First Quantum Minerals Ltd: One Pillar for Free; Upgrade to Overweight

Idea

May 18, 2026 08:38 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MFirst Quantum Minerals Ltd | North America Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

One Pillar for Free; Upgrade to Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7425-0427

Carlos De Alba

Equity AnalystOverweight Carlos.De.Alba@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4927

What’s Changed Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO) From To Alain Gabriel, CFA

Price Target C$37.70 C$42.20 Equity Analyst

Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.com +44 20 7425-8959

Rating Equal-weight Overweight

Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

FM’s sharp de-rating offers an attractive entry point, supported Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

by a positive catalyst path and superior growth prospects just as AdahnaEquity AnalystEkoku

copper’s strategic importance continues to rise. On spot, the Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

market is either ascribing near-zero likelihood of a Cobre First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO, FM CT)

Panamá deal or overlooks the growth optionality. Metals & Mining | Canada

Stock Rating Overweight

Underperformance appears overdone … First Quantum shares have materially Industry View In-Line

Price target C$42.20

lagged the copper sector, with the spot P/NPV multiple de-rating by 22% YTD to

Shr price, close (May 15, 2026) C$34.84

~0.6x (bottom of peer range) vs the copper sector re-rating by 5-15%, against a 52-Week Range C$45.17-19.25

Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$21,139

backdrop of intensifying copper M&A activity. While this underperformance reflects Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$6,074

softer operating momentum in Zambia, we think it now looks overdone and EV, curr (mn)* US$26,255