First Quantum Minerals Ltd "Cobre Panamá: No major surprise at Commission's..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Quantum Minerals Ltd "Cobre Panamá: No major surprise at Commission's..."

on of Q3E 0.25 0.22

investor confidence and legal certainty. While initial headlines suggested further Q4E 0.26 0.26

timeline delays to a Cobre Panamá restart, "the goal is to produce results as soon as 12/26E 0.14 0.37

possible" and deliver recommendations to the President before year-end, which 12/27E 2.05 1.82

suggests to us that the administration is increasingly focused on developing a technical 12/28E 3.21 2.84

and legally defensible long-term solution rather than perpetuating an indefinite closure.

Myles Allsop

Analyst

Defining the economic impact of Cobre Panamá myles.allsop@ubs.com

Finance Minister Chapman used the briefing to explicitly quantify the economic cost of +44-20-7568 1693

Cobre Panamá's closure, stating that 32 months of suspended operations have resulted Alex Stansbury, CFA

in more than PAB6.3bn of lost economic activity, approximately PAB5.9m of daily Analyst

economic losses, a 65% contraction in foreign direct investment, a 75% decline in alex.stansbury@ubs.com

goods exports and more than PAB90m of annual lost Social Security contributions. He +1-212-882 0097

also highlighted Panama's exposure to US$27bn of arbitration claims and argued that Daniel Major

pursuing a technical solution would strengthen, rather than weaken, the country's legal Analyst

standing by demonstrating respect for legal certainty and rational dispute resolution. In daniel.major@ubs.com

our view, the administration is placing greater emphasis on the economic and +44-20-7568 3472

investment implications of Cobre Panamá, alongside political and environmental

considerations, which could support a more constructive environment for future