Australia Macro+ Mid-Year Outlook: A Whole New Set of Arrangements

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Macro+ Mid-Year Outlook: A Whole New Set of Arrangements

Asia Pacific Insight

May 18, 2026 06:40 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Macro+ Mid-Year Outlook Chris Nicol

Equity Strategist

A Whole New Set of Chris.Nicol@morganstanley.comChris Read +61 3 9256-8909

Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

Chris.Read@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1513

Arrangements Antony Conte

Antony.Conte@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1544

The Australian investment case has changed. Pre- & post-energy Isabel Black

crisis inflation risks collide with a new world for policy intent EquityIsabel.Black@morganstanley.comStrategist +61 2 9775-2519

where slowing consumption balances durable capex-linked

priorities. Positioning rebalance keeps Index upside capped, while Exhibit 1 : Our mid-year 2027 price target is

geopolitics keeps volatility elevated. retained at 9,250 with circa 10-11% total return

upside potential from current* level

Global View - Constructive, Not Complacent: Strong macro and micro 10750

10250 10325

9750fundamentals - reinforced by a powerful AI‑driven capex cycle - support risk assets 9250 9250

despite energy‑led volatility widening return dispersion. The balance of risks 87508250

continues to favor DM equities. More specifically, the cross asset view is OW in 72506750 6850

stocks, UW in core fixed income, EW in other fixed income and EW commodities. 57505250

USD weakening bias persists and AUD expected to peak at 75c. 47504250

3750 ASX 200 Index MS Base Case Bear Case Bull Case

Australia Macro Outlook – Sequencing a Slowdown: Tighter policy settings and Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Apr-24 Oct-24 Apr-25 Oct-25 Apr-26 Oct-26 Apr-27