Semiconductors: Weekly: Earnings Week 5 (NVDA, ADI)

Research evidence excerpt

Semiconductors: Weekly: Earnings Week 5 (NVDA, ADI)

IdeaMXPU marketshare and new product (Groq/ standalone CPUs) traction: Perhaps

the most important debate for the stock is what Nvidia's marketshare in XPUs and in

the datacenter broadly looks like out beyond next year. We are optimistic on this

debate, ad think Nvidia represents the leading TCO across the market, but as

compute remains in short supply that debate is difficult to disprove, and we don't

think there's much incremental Nvidia can say on this earnings call to further the

debate in either direction. However given how recently Nvidia has launched Groq

and standalone CPUs this is an area where we may hear more about the potential

revenue contribution in the near-term and how Nvidia see's their solutions for

competing offerings.

We also believe that the share debate is somewhat secondary at these prices, if

Nvidia's $1T commentary is to be believed Nvida's earnings should be in the range of

$4 per share ($16 run rate) exiting 2027. A $16 perpetuity at an 8% discount rate

and 1% terminal growth rate has a present value of $229 vs Nvidia's current share

price of $225. So investors believe that via margin compression, share loss, or a

general slowdown in AI spending that there's very little in long term FCF and

earnings growth set to come from Nvidia. All debates we think can to turn more in

Nvidia's favor as rubin begins to ship in volume later this year and is key to our

positive view on the risk reward.

Product cycle: Vera Rubin ready to go, albeit with some normal startup issues.

We continue to see Vera Rubin tracking to schedules, ramping in 2h, though there

are some normal week to week ramp challenges that could mean racks are a few

weeks later than initial estimates.