An Underloved, High-Quality Company With Good Growth Prospects

Research evidence excerpt

An Underloved, High-Quality Company With Good Growth Prospects

rters and exit 2026 at/near the upper-end of Revenue $5,867 $6,495 $7,126 $7,544↓

STN's target range. EV $17,931 $16,960 $17,606↓ $16,999↓

Share buybacks appear increasingly attractive near-term. While M&A remains a Adj. EBITDA $980 $1,144 $1,283↑ $1,374↑

key priority for medium-to-long-term value creation, the significant pullback in the Consensus Estimates

shares has tilted the preference towards buybacks. The NCIB was renewed earlier this

2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

year which allows STN to repurchase up to 2.28M shares (~2.0% of Q1/26 outstanding)

through March 2027. Management alluded to being more active in its repurchase EPS $6.15 $6.90

program in the very near-term, which should provide some support for the shares. Valuation

Near-term acquisition activity may be slower than recent years. Private equity has 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

shown increased interest in the sector which may add some competitive pressures to P/E 22.6x 18.9x 15.9x 14.0x

marketed deals. We also suspect the downward pressure on multiples in public markets EV/EBITDA 18.3x 14.8x 13.7x 12.4x

has not been reflected in seller expectations, which may result in a widening of the

QTR. Adj. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

bid-ask spread and deferral of sales processes.

2024A $0.90 $1.10 $1.30 $1.12

Target price moderates to $154 (prior: $175), as slight upward estimate revisions were

2025A $1.16 $1.36 $1.53 $1.25offset by a lower multiple (21.0x forward NTM P/E; prior: 24.5x). Though we continue to

believe a P/E multiple in the mid-20s is achievable, we suspect it may take time for the 2026E $1.33a $1.59 $1.83 $1.52

full re-rate to be realized. 2027E $1.47 $1.85 $2.10 $1.75

Notes: EV/EBITDA presented on a post-IFRS 16 basis.

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