Sampo SBB top-up expected in November & bringing 2026 earnings back in line with targets

Research evidence excerpt

Sampo SBB top-up expected in November & bringing 2026 earnings back in line with targets

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

19 May 2026

Sampo Overweight

SAMPO.HE, SAMPO FH

SBB top-up expected in November & bringing 2026 Price (18 May 26):€9.13

earnings back in line with targets ▼Price Target (Dec-27):€11.30 Prior (Dec-27):€12.00

We adjust our estimates for Sampo to bring our 2026E earnings back in line with

guidance, primarily to reflect the company's best estimate of the impact from the European Insurance

Danish Supreme Court decision which was more favorable than we had initially Nadia Claressa AC

anticipated. We also now expect an additional €150m SBB to be announced at the (44-20) 7134-7613

November CMD, assuming a further sell-down of the NOBA stake, which brings nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

total FY26E SBB to €500m. Kamran M Hossain

(44-20) 3493-3780

• 2026E PBT increases 12% to €1.4bn. The main driver is the removal of our kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

prior ~€0.2bn post-tax assumption related to the Danish Supreme Court ruling Farooq Hanif

on Workers’ Compensation. Sampo’s current best estimate is that the potential (44 207) 742-8091

impact can be absorbed within its existing reserves. Management indicated that farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

their scenario analysis points to a net impact of €80m–160m, with the best Bingdi Fan, CFA

estimate falling within this range. Elsewhere in the business, we assume a (44-20) 7742-5336

bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

~20bps YoY improvement in the Nordic underlying risk ratio and a UK J.P. Morgan Securities plc

combined ratio of ~90%. This brings our 2026E underwriting result estimate

to ~€1.6bn, in line with the updated guidance of €1,525m-1,625m. Our 2026E Specialist Sales contact details: