Insurance (360) | Built for profitability

Research evidence excerpt

Insurance (360) | Built for profitability

relatively low capital consumption. For Storebrand, diversification

benefits further reduce the capital intensity of non-life growth, supporting

attractive returns despite a higher combined ratio than pure P&C peers.

▪ Autonomous vehicles are more likely to be a gradual long-term risk than a near-

term disruption. We estimate that the direct exposure to collision-related motor

premiums is significantly smaller than commonly perceived, while rising repair

complexity, software risks, and mobility services could create new insurance

opportunities.

▪ Shareholder returns remain attractive and highly visible. Nordic insurers offer an

average 2027E total shareholder yield of 6.1%, supported by ordinary dividends,

buybacks, and selected excess capital distributions.

Valuation model

▪ We value the Nordic insurers using a sum-of-the-parts implied P/E framework

based on our 2027E earnings estimates. We apply our in-house risk-free rate and

equity risk premium, with different costs of equity by business line depending on

capital intensity, earnings stability, and balance-sheet strength.

▪ The Nordic sector trades at an average 14.9x 2027E P/E, above the broader KECH

insurance coverage average of 11.3x. We believe this premium is justified by

stronger underwriting profitability, lower earnings volatility, and higher capital

visibility, but leaves less room for disappointment among the more mature P&C

names.

▪ Our stock preference reflects where we still see incremental upside. We prefer

Sampo and Storebrand, where capital returns, strategic optionality, and capital-

light growth remain visible, while we are more cautious on Gjensidige and Tryg

given the already strong profitability levels and more limited rerating potential.