Rapid Fire Friday: Post-PRC, IRI In Focus, CIA In CUB, FY27 Budget Indicators

Research evidence excerpt

Rapid Fire Friday: Post-PRC, IRI In Focus, CIA In CUB, FY27 Budget Indicators

TD Securities (USA) LLC POLICY NOTE

May 15, 2026

■WRG Aerospace & Defense Rapid Fire Friday: Post-PRC, IRI In Focus, CIA

In CUB, FY27 Budget Indicators

Roman Schweizer THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

202 868 5305 ■USA-PRC: No major deals but truce holds

roman.schweizer@tdsecurities.com

■OEF: Trump's next move unclear: ride the blockade or push SoH?

Liz Huseynov

646 562 1421 ■USA-CUB: CIA chief in Havana

liz.huseynov@tdsecurities.com

■FY27 $1.1T & Reco 3.0: Dates to watch for both

■NKOTB For Munitions: Scaled cruise missile push

■Golden Dome: CBO's price tag disputed by DRPM

■Making Waves: Supp risk, SSN production, & nuclear battleships

■Starship V3: First upgraded test launch

■COTW: Shipbuilding

Issues We're Tracking

■USA-PRC: Presidents Trump and Xi had a successful summit in Beijing based on official

readouts, but the summit underperformed low expectations set beforehand, in our opinion.

Boeing received a commitment for a 200-aircraft order, but that was well below the

pre-trip expectations. No firm or increased commitments on beef and soybeans were

announced, and nothing tangible happened on the USA's Board of Trade or the PRC's Board

of Investment. But the "Busan Truce" held, and there could be more traction on all of the

above later this year during Xi's expected USA visit in SEP. Notably, Xi warned Trump that

mishandling TPE could lead to “clashes and even conflicts”, but SecState Rubio said the

USA's stance on TPE remains unchanged.

■OEF: Trump returns home with perhaps a commitment from Xi regarding the Strait of

Hormuz, but we're skeptical it will change IRI's position. We believe CENTCOM is primed

to resume strikes on key IRI targets and/or escort operations (and likely both). While the