BNPP STRATEGY ALERT : Checking up on the US Consumer

Research evidence excerpt

BNPP STRATEGY ALERT : Checking up on the US Consumer

STRATEGY

BNPP STRATEGY ALERT

FLASH NOTE

Checking up on the US Consumer

15 MAY 2026 Macro Research Report Production time: 06:21* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Dennis Jose BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8479 dennis.jose@uk.bnpparibas.com

Despite the rise in Oil prices, US consumer spending has so far been resilient and economic data surprises have turned

more positive over the recent month. Will this resilience continue? We think for a significant slowdown Oil prices likely

have to rise to $150+, especially after accounting for the stimulative effects of the OBBBA. However, with gains accruing

to higher income consumers, the K shaped consumer picture is likely to exacerbate further.

Nevertheless, as this week’s Alert highlights, High Frequency economic indicators remain resilient. Barring a sharp

further increase in Oil prices, inflation as opposed to recession, is likely the next banana skin for markets.

The Alert collates and curates activity data from over 30 datasources on the US, Europe and China, including key

performance, flows, with earnings momentum screens. Here is the link to the underlying datapack: BNPP STRATEGY

ALERT: Checking up on the US Consumer.

The Oil Impact: So far, not much of a slowdown

While Oil prices have risen sizeably this year driven by Hormuz, US consumer data thus far has proved resilient.

Aggregate economic data surprises have, if anything turned more positive over the past month, with earnings also

surprising to the upside (Earnings: AI Hardware is Still Eating The World).

When will Oil matter?

The increase in Oil prices has undoubtedly been sharp. However, after adjusting for inflation, real Oil prices are still