Meren-Production 2% ahead, but a messy quarter-05/13/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Meren-Production 2% ahead, but a messy quarter-05/13/2026

Meren

NEWSFLASH | 13 MAY 2026

Production 2% ahead, but a messy quarter

Meren reported Q1’26 WI production of 28.4 kbd, 2% above cons./PAS. Underlying results and cash flow is in line with our

expectations, but the P&L is impacted by several factors/one-off items. Only one cargo lifted resulting in a USD 67m underlift,

recognized additional gas revenue tied to a gas sales agreement of USD 41m and oil hedging MtM losses of 38m. FCF before

WC of USD ~70m equates to an annualized run-rate yield of 25% (but capex will increase in H2’26). Post-Q1’26, the company

has sold two cargoes realized at USD ~64/ and USD 122/bbl, respectively. Meren has hedged ~45% of its H2'26 oil production

at ~USD 62-66/bbl (nothing new but unfavorable in the current environment). Guidance and USD ~25m quarterly dividend

unchanged, as expected. BUY TP SEK 26.

Deviation table:

Meren Energy Actual Q1'26e Deviation PAS estimates (pre quarter)

Q1'26 Cons. PAS Cons PAS 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Revenues USDm 114 153 129 (25)% (11)% 886 736 693 726

Operating costs " 1 (64) (65) n.m. n.m. (441) (260) (247) (250)

EBITDA " 131 88 64 n.m. n.m. 445 476 446 475

EBIT " 82 33 18 n.m. n.m. 60 297 307 330

Net profit '' (42) 17 10 n.m. n.m. (83) 216 225 247

Cash flow and Balance

Operating cash flow USDm (27) 43 20 n.m. n.m. 273 315 296 311

Capex '' 9 31 35 n.m. n.m. 76 139 88 42

FCF '' (36) 12 (14) n.m. n.m. 349 454 384 353

Cash '' 162 172 127 (6)% 28% 175 216 324 493

Net debt " 208 197 203 6% 2% 155 114 6 (163)

Production and prices

Total WI production boe/day 28,400 27,950 27,869 2% 2% 30,800 26,500 27,000 27,900

Realized Brent price USD/bbl 64 70 62 -9 % 3 % 68 90 80 80

Guidance items

Production

WI production of 23-28 kbd