NRC Group-Sweden ruining the print – guidance kept firm-05/13/2026

Research evidence excerpt

NRC Group-Sweden ruining the print – guidance kept firm-05/13/2026

NRC Group

NEWSFLASH | 13 MAY 2026

Sweden ruining the print – guidance kept firm

Q1 EBIT adj. of NOK 30m came in 27% below consensus, with the recent NOK strengthening having some impact, but very

soft results in the Swedish branch were the key driver. Revenue in the Swedish division came in flattish, though weaker rail

and civil divisions hit margins harder than we expected, leaving margins at -4.6%. Stripping out NOK 14m in restructuring

costs, a 2% EBIT margin (vs. -3% in Q1'25) must be seen as a testament to a successful cost efficiency program in the

Norwegian branch – and the same goes for Finland, posting a 2pp margin improvement despite flat revenue. Orders missed

our estimates, leaving backlog set for execution in T down 10% y/y. A few major tenders were submitted in Q1, however,

which management expects to lead to meaningful order growth in H2. 2026 guidance of NOK 7.5bn in revenue and >3%

margin is kept firm, but the surprisingly soft Sweden print will likely leave consensus trimming 2026-27e EBIT by 4-5%.

Deviation table

ActualActual Q1'26Q1'26 DeviationDeviation (%)(%) ParetoPareto estimatesestimates

P&LP&L -- NRCNRC NOKmNOKm Q1'25Q1'25 Q1'26Q1'26 Cons.Cons. ParetoPareto Cons.Cons. ParetoPareto 2026E2026E 2027E2027E 2028E2028E

RevenuesRevenues " 1,2641,264 1,1371,137 1,2541,254 1,2151,215 -9-9 %% -6-6 %% 7,1307,130 7,5937,593 8,0128,012

Operating costs " (1,238) (1,107) (1,213) (1,161) -9 % -5 % (6,692) (7,124) (7,509)

EBITDAEBITDA adj.adj. " 2626 3030 4141 5454 -27-27 %% -44-44 %% 438438 469469 503503

Margin (%) % 2.1% 2.6% 3.3% 4.4% -0.6 % -1.8 % 6.1% 6.2% 6.3%

EBIT " (27) (15) (11) 1 -36 % n.a 141 227 257

EBITEBIT adj.adj.