Stellantis N.V. "CMD next week:"Make or Break" moment?" (Buy) Hummel

Research evidence excerpt

Stellantis N.V. "CMD next week:"Make or Break" moment?" (Buy) Hummel

mance" bucket), next to portfolio additions that

UBS Cons.

support the market share recovery. On the latter, investor scepticism has grown recently 12/26E 0.86 0.77

given the more challenging macro / oil price backdrop. The 2028 FCF guide could land in 12/27E 1.45 1.51

the ~€1-3bn range (still including ~€1bn of one-off charges) reflecting the AOI swing, 12/28E 1.83 2.04

but we also expect investments to increase by ~€2bn p.a. vs. 2025/26 so that the path to

higher cash returns will likely be longer-winded. Near-term, we expect a confirmation of Patrick Hummel, CFA

the 1-3% AOI margin corridor for 2026 but wording could point towards the lower half Analyst

patrick.hummel@ubs.com

of the range (additional commodity headwinds, US demand uncertainties).

+41-44-239 52 54

Strategic focus on execution rather than "revolution" David Lesne

Analyst

We think no revolution should be expected about the business model as an integrated david.lesne@ubs.com

global OEM; any potential factory deals with Chinese OEMs would also be difficult to +33-14-888 3034

time just for the CMD. The latest hot topic "diversifying away from autos" won't matter

Juan Perez-Carrascosa

for Stellantis either, in our view. We rather expect the strategic focus to be on right-sizing

of capacity and more R&D and product collaboration with Chinese OEMs in EE and a juan-perez.carrascosa@ubs.com

stronger investment focus on the most profitable parts of the business, ie, RAM & Jeep +34-91-436 9025

in NA (including reshoring in the US) and Jeep, Peugeot and Fiat the "Third Engine"

region.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 188,472 155,912 152,911 162,035 169,161 174,516 179,302 184,226